Dec 10, 2020 04:00 PM - 05:30 PM(Europe/Amsterdam)
20201210T160020201210T1730Europe/AmsterdamTrack 3 | Session 2. Post-COVID mobility: modeling the future
This session tackles urban connectivity from a perspective of a post-COVID 19 mobility world.
Issues related to models of migration and infection from a public transport point of view, traffic performance of polycentric space structures, traffic flow models measuring the intensity of spatial connection and commuting patterns of city center workers are discussed. Solutions such as greener transportation infrastructures, human-oriented land-use policies instead of car-oriented ones, mixed-use development and 15 minutes city model are presented. Finally, the session brings forward the opportunity of the COVID 19 crisis for planners and authorities to adapt our cities in this new reality and become more resilient moving towards a sustainable future, where prioritizing non-motorized traffic will, in turn, improve motorized traffic and therefore, the transport system as a whole.
Virtual Room 156th ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Virtual Congresscongress@isocarp.org
This session tackles urban connectivity from a perspective of a post-COVID 19 mobility world.
Issues related to models of migration and infection from a public transport point of view, traffic performance of polycentric space structures, traffic flow models measuring the intensity of spatial connection and commuting patterns of city center workers are discussed. Solutions such as greener transportation infrastructures, human-oriented land-use policies instead of car-oriented ones, mixed-use development and 15 minutes city model are presented. Finally, the session brings forward the opportunity of the COVID 19 crisis for planners and authorities to adapt our cities in this new reality and become more resilient moving towards a sustainable future, where prioritizing non-motorized traffic will, in turn, improve motorized traffic and therefore, the transport system as a whole.
Small Case, Big Principle – Achieving a Sustainable Transport is not a MythView Abstract Case Study Report3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Small Case, Big Principle – Achieving Sustainable Transport is not a Myth Abstract With the continuous advancement of urbanisation in the city of Fuzhou in China, intersection roundabouts can no longer meet the need of complex multi-modal traffic. Therefore, how to balance the need of both motorised and non-motorised traffic, and putting forward an optimal intersection traffic arrangement has become the focus of urban road intersection design. The study relates to a complex four-way intersection design at the intersection of Guobin & Qishang Avenues in the city of Fuzhou, China. After exploring three detailed design options for the subject intersection, the recommended option is deleting the give-way which intersects with the pedestrian/cycle lane, that prioritises non-motorised traffic modes and the pedestrian connection to the underground subway station. The deletion of the give-way seems that it could reduce the capacity of the motorised traffic at the first glance, however, the actual effect of the deletion shows an unexpected result: it in fact improves the efficiency of the motorised traffic due to the fact that the improved non-motorised traffic causes less interference to the motorised traffic, which leads to the improvement of the whole system and achieve a win-win situation. This typical small case, reflects a big principle, that is: prioritising non-motorised traffic will in turn improve motorised traffic and therefore, the transport system as a whole.
Raymond Dong Planning Director , Fuzhou Institute Of Planning Design And Research
Ashghal recycling solutions for the construction of greener urban pavements in the State of QatarView Abstract Case Study Report3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
In the past two decades the State of Qatar has undergone a massive development of its urban centers, with an impressive upgrading and expansion of transportation infrastructures. Such a development, which has been functional for the social and economic growth of the Country, is currently matched by the need of implementing the United Nations sustainable development goals. Thus, greening of the urban structure is being sought by the Public Works Authority (Ashghal) by means of several strategic actions that include the adoption of innovative technological solutions for the construction of road pavements. In particular, ongoing studies carried out under the responsibility of the Quality and Safety Department (QSD) are focusing on the local implementation and validation of recycling techniques. These can contribute to the reduction of natural resources depletion and to the overall mitigation of direct and indirect environmental impacts associated to road construction. This paper provides an illustration of the several recycling opportunities that have been identified for future road pavements in the State of Qatar as part of the so-called “Ashghal Recyling Initiative” and in line with the Qatar National Vision 2030. Materials that have been subjected to experimental analysis and that have shown a significant potential for use include excavation waste, construction and demolition waste, Wadi aggregates, reclaimed asphalt, steel slag and crumb rubber derived from end-of-life tires. However, other recycled materials may also be considered in the future, provided that their chemical, physical and mechanical characteristics are conveniently assessed and that their collection and processing is systematically organized. The overall feasibility of adopting innovative pavement cross-sections containing significant quantities of the abovementioned recycled materials is discussed by considering availability of materials, technical issues related to processing and construction, and predicted field performance. Finally, future prospects of the State of Qatar are also illustrated by referring to the research and implementation needs that will require actions to be taken in the context of a truly sustainable “urban green deal”.
Ali Mohammed Al-Marri Manager, Quality And Safety Department, Public Works Authority
Planning and Successful Operation of Feeder Services to Doha MetroView Abstract Case Study Report3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Qatar has made substantial investments to improve existing public transport system by implementing a state of the art Metro Network connecting the capital city of Doha with its suburban areas. The country’s visionary leadership and policy planners had realized that one of the key factors in the public acceptance and success will be the “first and last mile connectivity” – connecting people from their homes to metro station and from the station to their ultimate destination and started implementing various strategies to address the connectivity gap. The filling up of this gap is a major challenge in a city like Doha where public transport share is miniscule and higher dependency on private vehicles. First and last mile refers to a suite of modes/facilities including non-motorized (walking, biking etc.) and motorized modes (cars, taxis, feeder buses etc.) that facilitate easy, safe, and efficient access to a high-capacity system. In other words the First and Last Mile connectivity expand the reach of transit and maximize multi-modal benefits and efficiencies thereby inducing modal shift towards public transport. This paper specifically discusses the planning methodology, design philosophy, implementation and operational challenges of the feeder bus network (branded as metrolink) that has revolutionized travel behavior/patterns and proved quiet popular amongst the metro riders within a short span of operation. The metrolink feeder service contributed immensely in extending the metro passenger catchment beyond walking distance of 400m. It is expected that around 40-50% of the metro ridership will access the metro using the metrolink service. The paper focuses mainly on planning and development of route network for each metro station, specification for feeder bus vehicle, specification for feeder bus stop, fleet requirement and procurement strategies, operating model, service standards and key performance indicators and challenges ad lessons learnt This paper also recommends the means and forward looking strategies of improving/optimizing the current metrolink network with focus of reducing operating cost and emissions whilst maintaining the level of service offered to the passengers.
Characteristics of Spatial Connection Based on Intercity Passenger Traffic Flow in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration, ChinaView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
With the continuous improvement of transportation facilities and information networks, the obstruction of distance in geographic space has gradually weakened, and the hotspots of urban geography research have gradually changed from the previous city hierarchy to the characteristics of urban connections and networks. As the main carrier and manifestation of elements’ mobility such as people and material, traffic flow is of great significance for understanding the characteristics of spatial connection. In this paper, Harbin-Changchun agglomeration proposed by China's New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) is taken as a research object. With the data of intercity passenger traffic flow including highway and railway passenger trips between 73 county-level spatial units in the research area, a traffic flow model is constructed to measure the intensity of spatial connection. Using social network analysis method, the characteristics of spatial connection of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration are analyzed, and the results are visualized with ArcGIS technique. The results show that the spatial connection of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration based on traffic flow presents a distance attenuation effect that weakens in the directions of "Harbin-Daqing-Qiqihar-Mudanjiang" and "Changchun-Jilin-Tumen"; the direction of the connection clearly points to the Heilongjiang’s provincial capital Harbin and Jilin’s provincial capital Changchun, which proves that the agglomeration effect with Harbin and Changchun districts as the core is significant; the connection strength of Harbin or Changchun districts and other spatial units is the strongest, follow by Daqing, Qiqihar or Jilin districts and other spatial units. However, counties and cities in the border areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces have the lowest connection strength with other counties and cities, indicating that there are obvious regional differences in the spatial connection level of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration, and the connection nodes present a dual-core-edge hierarchical distribution. The research can provide support for the proposal of regionally coordinated sustainable development strategies of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.
Xiaochen Wu School Of Architecture, Harbin Institute Of Technology;Key Laboratory Of Cold Region Urban And Rural Human Settlement Environment Science And Technology , Ministry Of Industry And Information Technology;
Quantitative Analysis on the Topological Structures of Urban Street NetworksView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Topological structures are the backbone of urban street. In the global development in urbanization and economy, street systems have developed significantly with the city expansion. In this paper, the authors select nine street samples in Dalian with varying locations, patterns, and growth mechanisms. Firstly, a research framework based on complex network theory is proposed for planar representation of street networks topological structures. Then, by combining axial analysis of space syntax with graphs analysis of route structure, this study calculate measuring parameters of the nine street samples, including integration, intelligence, regularity, recursiveness, and heterogeneity. Finally, the performance advantages of the proposed research method in quantitative analysis on topological structures of street networks are verified through comparative analysis of characteristics relations with urban growth mechanisms.
Bingxin Wang Student, Dalian University Of Technology
YENI ISTANBUL: A SYSTEM OF INFRASTRUCTURE MEGAPROJECTS an assessment of the dimensions of the new megaprojects in global cities situated at the periphery of Western capitalist economies from a governance and planning process perspective: the case study of ISTANBUL AIRPORT - TurkeyView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Total global infrastructure megaproject spending values $ 6-9 trillion annually, or 8 % of the world’s GDP, which stands for the biggest investment numbers reached in human history. Therefore, systematic and accurate knowledge about this type of megaprojects is necessary to inform policy and practice. It is argued that the traditional way of managing these projects is challenged and reform is on its way (Flyvbjerg, 2011). The overall research goal is to contribute to the more general, theoretical contention on the new emerging infrastructure megaprojects that enable the expansion of global cities, in locations situated at the periphery of West-capitalist economies, in understanding them through the concepts of governance and planning process. The article tackles dimensions of megaproject planning in Istanbul, Turkey, by studying the city’s expansion to the north with its newest infrastructure project, Istanbul Airport. The aim is to assess to which extend the top-down, but also bottom-up governance forms influence the planning process and outcomes of the project, providing future policy recommendations. The theoretical framework that underpins this research is derived from the discourse on new forms of urban governance including private, public, and civic actors that influence planning processes and outcomes of megaprojects. Analytical tools of the research include: decision-making process, the legal framework, actors, their relations, and discourse analysis. The literature review provides an overview of the phenomenon of the new megaproject development, its characteristics and main shortcomings, impacts, and risks. Before analyzing the original case study of the research, a statistical exploration of a sample of 150 infrastructure megaprojects is done with the scope of forming a grounded theoretical foundation. Both primary and secondary data were collected through: literature review, review of documents, plans, and laws, articles from media, 20 interviews, 40 questionnaires, and a workshop, observation, and an internship, made by the author at Istanbul Metropolitan Planning office. To understand the planning processes of the Istanbul Airport megaproject, a reflection is done on Istanbul’s urban transformation policies and the institutional framework at the city and national level that facilitate them. In conclusion, the new wave of megaprojects at the periphery of capitalist economies seem not so different from the western examples, implemented through sudden, top-down decisions that do not sufficiently account for environmental protection or consultations with citizens, but successfully surpass their main concern in the literature review, considering the performance dimension: the cost overruns and time delays. It was found that Istanbul Airport is a hybrid megaproject with a good performance, on time and on budget, but with a top-down approach to planning, lacking transparency, accountability, participation, and good quality information in its planning process, leading to uneven territorial development and uneven allocation of resources, social conflicts, urban sprawl, and environmental distortion. Although it is developed through a PPP, the leading factors behind are an entrepreneurial central government and also a national policy on urban transformations that takes megaprojects out of the traditional institutional planning system. The article argues that only through a change of a more inclusive planning approach, along with targets of improvement on the policy level and its integration into the traditional institutional planning system, into bigger scale plans, the megaproject will be able to escape the current deadlocks and collisions between government, investors and resistance, and might have a chance to actually set an urgently needed precedent of new planning culture in Istanbul. Lastly, the research proposes a desirable planning process model for the new megaprojects, situated at the periphery of West-capitalist economies.
Presenters Serin Geambazu Senior Urban Planner, EU Projects- Project Manager, Lecturer, Ion Mincu University Of Architecture And Urban Planning & Urbasofia
Building resilient urban futures by setting a mission for sustainability in the post-oil and post Covid-19 eraView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
The current global health crisis has profoundly affected major urban centers all over the world. Confinement has put people’s lifestyles in question, changed daily priorities and limited citizen freedoms that seemed inalienable before. A new set of rules on social interactions and urban operations are fundamentally transforming the way we live, work and experience public space. These rules can hardly be seen as a temporary condition. The great impact of the crisis as well as its long duration have started to affect human behavior and routines gradually formulated throughout the course of time. In this context, urban planning is facing a major challenge; it has to create a balance between the urban engine of growth through concentration of ideas and social interactions without exacerbating the risk of potential contagion. The outcome of this task will become the new normal. A basic human activity that was greatly affected by the health crisis is mobility. In fact, the requirements of social distancing are far more challenging in larger cities where the population is concentrated in higher density. This creates two diametrically opposite forces that may be dependent on the specific cultural and economic environment. The first force poses new barriers for sustainability. The use of public transport is discouraged with imposed limits on the number of passengers and guidelines indicate the use of private means of transportation as much as possible. As a result private automobiles could emerge as the fastest, safest and finally most convenient option again, besides the tendency of last years to move towards greener mobility alternatives. This was the case in China where the post crises sales of cars rose significantly. The second force relates to an acceleration of sustainable mobility with citizens shifting towards walking, cycling, and other forms of micromobility, while the actual need for commuting is also reduced due to remote working. The actual long-lasting impact on mobility depends on regulatory trends, consumer behaviors but most significantly on the response of urban planners. Land-use planners can identify healthy and sustainable alternative urban design strategies to support and promote walking and cycling, while enhancing the accessibility and connectivity of the neighbourhood-level public spaces. Public authorities around the world are concerned about providing their citizens with adequate public space for social interaction. Several cities are responding to this need by allocating space to increase bike and pedestrian paths since walking and cycling are the simplest ways for integrating social distancing in the city. The purpose of this paper is to examine how current mobility trends affect the vision of post fossil-fuel and post Covid-19 cities by comparing land-use and mobility data from European and North American cities. We challenge the effectiveness of the current land-use planning towards a post-fossil fuel future under the circumstances of the pandemic. The paper identifies solutions arising from the use of ICT, the concepts of smart cities and ‘vision zero’ that make infrastructure, public space and mobility networks adaptable to the new spacing measures in order to limit the spread of the virus, while it examines different ways that cities can adapt their development towards a post fossil-fuel reality. This empirical research provides new insights into whether and how current land-use policies could become human instead of car-oriented and introduce more flexibility and mixed-use development. This crisis can be an opportunity for planners and authorities to release more space for people and promote environmental design and planning. In the end, cities which adapt in this new reality will become more resilient and move towards a sustainable future.
Christina Kakderi Associate Professor, Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki Co-Authors Ilektra PAPADAKI PhD Candidate In Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki, URENIO Research, Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki
Eleni Oikonomaki Phd Candidate, Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki
Exposing unbalanced service distribution in urban areas: the case of MilanView Abstract Case Study Report3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
There is a growing need to reevaluate accessibility levels in terms that give weight to the means of accessibility rather than measuring levels of access in abstract terms (or for all modes equally). As a response to both mounting environmental pressures and rising health risks associated with the contagion of non-communicable diseases in overcrowded spaces, walking and other low-impact, low-contact travel modes such as cycling are gaining momentum and are being acknowledged not just in scholarly circles but increasingly and rapidly in political circles as well, as cities worldwide search for ways to grapple with the ongoing global pandemic situation. In the city of Milan, levels of accessibility to services vary spatially and are disproportionately low in some areas with respect to others. Already, prior to the current pandemic situation, global cities were promoting plans to promote walkability and cycling such as the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) of the City of Milan, the 15-minute city plan recently launched by Paris mayor, Anne Hidalgo, and the 20-minute neighborhood concept instigated by the Office of Sustainable Development in Portland, Oregon in the United States. In each - as well as others - the fundamental idea is to ensure that most services (essential and some non-essential) are easily accessible via walking or cycling in all neighborhoods or districts. At Systematica, a similar exercise is being carried out for the city of Milan. As one of the most polluted major cities in the EU and one of the hardest hit from the current pandemic, authorities in Milan are going above and beyond to ensure a safe reopening after a two-month lockdown state that strained economic and social reservoirs. In line with the municipality’s Strade Aperte (Open Streets) plan, which underscores the importance of redirecting personal car users towards pedestrian and cycling options, the effort at Systematica is aimed at conducting an in depth cross-district spatial analysis to define areas of low accessibility to services and thus high reliance on the private car and crowded public transport options. This exercise is carried out through isochronal analysis applied for a variety of services in different districts across the city of Milan. Services are defined into broad categories based on their type (such as food, health, recreational, etc.), scale and accessibility, and each service within these categories is given a predefined catchment area based on the number of required units for a given population. In this regard, a series of large structured datasets are combined with reference to service accessibility, land use, socio-demographics and mobility indicators. Ultimately, this exercise is intended to identify areas of low access levels to services where new functions can be inserted to ensure accessing all necessary amenities in a reasonable amount of time by foot is possible. A detailed analysis of access levels by functional category enables local authorities to define priority action areas tailored to the needs of each neighborhood and accounting for its demographic constituency. To take one example, areas with high levels of elderly residents will be prioritized for medical service accessibility and distribution. By repeating this exercise for each pillar of the study, we come closer to achieving a spatially neutral adequate level of accessibility for residents of Milan. Beyond results, Systematica also aims to disseminate the study’s methodology, which can be easily replicated and adapted to fit the needs of other cities facing similar circumstances and to ultimately shed light on practical planning tools as we plan the cities of the future.
Macro- and micro-scale modeling of multi-modal transportation spatial networks in the city-state of Doha, QatarView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Researchers and practitioners have been modeling vehicular networks across metropolitan and geographical regions, even on a national scale, using configurational analysis or space syntax since the late 1990s and early 2000s. These models range in scale including, but is not limited to, the island of Great Britain (land area of ~209,000 km2), national boundaries of England (~130,000 km2), over half of metric area for the Combined Statistical Area of Metropolitan Chicago (~10,900 km2), and Chatham County, Georgia (~1,640 km2) in the USA (Hanson, 2009; Turner, 2009; Major, 2018; Major, 2020). & In 2018, researchers in the Department of Architecture and Urban Planning (DAUP), College of Engineering (CENG) at Qatar University (QU) constructed a space syntax model of Metropolitan Doha covering a land area of 650 km2, encompassing over 24,000 streets and approximately eighty-five percent (~85%) of the total population (~2.8 million) in the State of Qatar. In a short time, this model has led to a deeper understanding about spatial structure at the metropolitan, neighborhood, and marketplace (souqs or souks in Arabic) level in Doha, especially compared to other cities of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region as well as elsewhere in the world (Major et al, 2019; Tannous, 2019; Tannous & Major, 2020). This paper presents the results of expanding this space syntax of Metropolitan Doha to include multi-modal aspects of the Qatari environment at various geographical scales. The expanded model includes: micro-scale pedestrian-only spatial networks in Souq Waqif and Souq Wakra; metropolitan-scale representation of the newly opened Doha Metro network; and, all settlements and area in outlying regions such as Al Ruwais/Fuwayriţ in the far north, Al Khor and the Industrial City of Ras Laffan in the northeast, and Durkan/Zekreet in the west to encompass the entire land area of the State of Qatar. As a peninsular nation in Arabia, lying on the Arabian/Persian Gulf with only a single border to another country to the southwest (closed by Saudi Arabia due to current blockade for political reasons), the State of Qatar is ideal for this large-scale and detailed type of modeling using space syntax modeling.
Presenters Mark David Major Assistant Professor Of Architecture And Urban Planning, Qatar University Co-Authors Heba O. Tannous Research Associate, Qatar University
Urban Regeneration and Sustainable Urban Development from Polycentric Spatial Structure Traffic PerformanceView Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Traffic congestion and air pollution have become the main phenomenon of agglomeration dis-economy in urban. As one of the means to alleviate the agglomeration dis-economy, the traffic performance of polycentric space structure needs to be further tested. The study examines the traffic performance of polycentric spatial structure in Harbin, China. Discusses the relationship between regeneration and traffic efficiency of polycentric spatial structure. The study was divided into three parts. The first part, the study adopted the social survey method to collect the information of working and residential location, commuting mode and time, subjective commuting feeling and influencing factors of employment and residential location selection with employees in urban centers as the objects of investigation. The second part is traffic performance test of polycentric spatial structure, a positive polycentric space structure should have three aspects of traffic performance. First, shortening the commuting distance, reducing excessive commuting, reduce road pressure, traffic congestion and air pollution, when the ratio of the average commuting distance between centers and the city is less than 1, the polycentric space structure is beneficial to shorten the commuting distance. Second, shortening the commute time and reducing the time cost, when the ratio of the average commuting time between centers and the city is less than 1, the polycentric space structure is beneficial to shorten the commuting time. Third, increase the proportion of green transportation. The traffic performance of polycentric spatial structure is evaluated through the above three points. The third part is to analyze the influencing factors of traffic performance combining with the co-location hypothesis. The spatial separation of employment and residence is the core reason that affects the traffic performance of polycentric spatial structure, the co-location hypothesis holds that households and enterprises adjust their positions periodically to achieve the residence-employment balance and shorten the commuting distance, The core of the co-location hypothesis is the re-balancing of the commuting cost with the location benefits of employment and residence. When the cost of commuting is greater than the benefit of the current employment and residential location, location re-selection occurs. Residents can reduce the commuting distance and time by changing their work and residence. It is most important that commuting cost has enough weight in location selection to compete with location benefits of residence and employment. The factors that make long-distance commuting affordable are the focus of urban regeneration and sustainable urban development. The commuting distance is not determined by the cost of commuting alone, but by the comprehensive cost-benefit. The case study of Harbin shows that the average commuting distance in centers is greater than that of the city, and the proportion of long-distance commuting is higher, but the faster commuting speed in the fringe area makes average commuting time shorter than that of the city. The importance of commuting costs is insufficient, the employment and residential location resources are extremely unbalanced, and they influence the process of location re-selection and makes long-distance commuting economically reasonable. The fundamental ways to improve the traffic performance of polycentric spatial structure are to face up to the rationality of long-distance commuting and traffic demand, adjust commuting cost and the balance of residential and employment location resources, improve the relationship between occupation and housing.
Rong Guo Harbin, School Of Architecture, Harbin Institute Of Technology, Key Laboratory Of Cold Region Urban And Rural Human Settlement Environment Science And Technology, Ministry Of Industry And Information Technology
Impact of Inter-city Population Mobility and Public Transport Policies on Infectious Epidemics -- Talking about Public Health and Safety from COVID-19View Abstract Research Paper3: Planning for Urban Connectivity04:00 PM - 05:30 PM (Europe/Amsterdam) 2020/12/10 15:00:00 UTC - 2020/12/10 16:30:00 UTC
Background: On December 31, 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission of Hubei Province, China, reported 27 cases of unknown pneumonia. On January 22, Wuhan City implemented the strategy of "closed city" to cut off the communication between Wuhan and the outside areas. Subsequently, there was a nationwide outbreak of infection in China. This article takes the COVID-19 infection as the research object, and uses the mobile phone positioning system to obtain the Wuhan city population migration data from January 1 to February 10, 2020, compares the published data on the number of outbreaks in various cities, and studies the inter-city population relevant models of mobile and epidemic infections, and analyzes the role of policy-oriented epidemic control in the special period of infectious diseases by means of controlling public transportation. Research foundation: Based on Baidu migration big data, we can get the number of people moving in and out of the base city and the source city or target city daily, which gives the data basis for the study. As an important guiding policy for major cities in the world, public transport priority policies have made important contributions to the city's economic development and functional compound. However, during the special period of infectious epidemics, China did not prepare a corresponding emergency plan with public transportation, resulting in no effective measures in the early period; but China accurately makes important decisions to close the outgoing passages of infectious source city, takes certain compulsory measures in the face of risk issues and implements them strictly, and has achieved results in the means of intercity traffic blocking, providing a real case study for this study. Research contents: (1) Using January 1 to February 10, 2020 as the survey time range, using mobile phone positioning big data systems to obtain the top 30 cities and their populations from Wuhan during this period. Combined with the daily epidemic situation of each city announced by the government, this paper analyzed the relevant models of population movement and epidemic infection by GIS, SPSS and other technical methods. (2) After Wuhan “closed city” policy, it cut off the traffic links between Wuhan and other cities. The necessity of "closed city" measures can be seen by comparing the effectiveness of China and other countries in the control of the outbreak. For the special period of the epidemic, this study explores the supplement and improvement of public transport policies through case comparison and effect analysis of this case. Research results: (1) The nationwide infectious epidemic has a strong correlation with the outflow of population in the source city in the early stage. Due to the incubation period of 14 days, the increase in the number of people in other cities is lagging compared to the outflow of population. The parameters include the number of confirmed patients, the incubation period, and indicators of population mobility, etc. (2) The Transit First Policy still has an advantageous role in the special situation of infectious epidemics, but it is necessary to appropriately reduce bus priorities and improve measures and means in public safety, including routes, time, relaxation of private cars, etc. Research value: This article explores the relevant models of inter-city population movement and the spread of infectious epidemics by studying China ’s real epidemic prevention situation, and analyzes the importance of public transportation policies for maintaining urban safety and citizens ’health during special periods with public transportation as an entry point. The proposed policy improvement and emergency plan for public transport in special periods have the universality for large cities when facing major risks.